IVF predictions get better

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Predictions for success with IVF may be getting better! A new model created by Scott Nelson from the University of Glasgow, Scotland, and Debbie Lawlor from the University of Bristol, England, uses couple and treatment specific data for a more accurate projection of success with in vitro fertilization. One factor making their calculation better is the inclusion of intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) method.

The authors used data from the UK between the years 2003 and 2007. During this time 163,425 IVF cycles were completed with 23.4% resulting in a live birth. Using most of the data from those pregnancies, Nelson and Lawlor were able to determine a detailed statistical model projecting the outcome of IVF for particular couples. Several factors make their model different from the current standard. Factors which decrease success included: the increasing maternal age, increasing duration of infertility, and the use of the woman’s own oocytes were part of the new model. New factors which increase the success are previous live birth and use of ICSI. The researchers also predict that the chances of premature birth and low birth weight after IVF increase if donor eggs were required and ICSI was not utilized.

As soon as the new model is tested with independent IVF data, it could be put into widespread use. “Pending external validation, our results show that couple and treatment specific factors can be used to provide infertile couples with an accurate assessment of whether they have low or high risk of a successful outcome following IVF,” the report states.

Source: PLoS Medicine, Medical News Today


 
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